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With every revolution, there have come natural changes; however, in the modern era, technological advancements are moving at unprecedented speeds and, as a result, are introducing new complexities and disrupting former paradigms of operation in global security.
In the 1500s, the gunpowder revolution took two hundred years to conclude before moving into the first industrial revolution, which lasted one hundred and fifty years. Then came the second industrial revolution lasted only forty years, followed by the most recent Information Revolution, lasting only thirty (Boot 16). The rapid speed of access to information and advancements because of technology in its many forms has fundamentally altered the "rate of change … volume and velocity of information that must be understood and managed" (Allenby 7). Allenby notes the importance of understanding and managing the fire hose of information that has transformed the world of recent generations. This rapid expansion has increased complexity to a point that it has not been experienced at any other time in history. Resulting in a dramatic transformation of politics and security as we formerly knew it. As Harrison observed, "The defining characteristics of four decades of international politics were erased in a few short years" (1). It is as equally awe-inspiring as it is overwhelming and concerning.
Emerging technologies undermine and overwhelm "old assumptions, verities, and institutions" (Allenby 7). Allenby's comment further illustrates the paradigm shift of former strategies and ways of thought compared to global security pre-internet. What has emerged is a highly complex system that has evolved into a sophisticated information and networking machine. A complex system's defining characteristics indicating its presence are diversity and decentralization (Harrison 3). Both characteristics also happen to be primary characteristics brought with technological advancements. The complexity introduced by this new interconnectedness suggests a symbiotic relationship between advancing technology and system complexities.
Because of the new information space in which just over half the world operates, we, as global citizens, are witnessing an unprecedented clash of values and civilizational conflict. The last time the world experienced such a dramatic transformation in conflict was during the period of European exploration and the emergence of the Enlightenment era (Allenby). However, this time of expansion and new connections was nothing near its scale today. As a result, engaging in conflict has become more accessible in modern times than ever before. Because of the connectedness globally, long-standing rival nations are now each other's next-door neighbors. Additionally, the barrier for entry to engage in conflict, particularly within gray zone operations, is low for any country wishing to join the discourse of global politics or attempt to utilize the new platforms to gain an advantage.
Leading us to the next aspect of the impact of technology on conflict; new technology has bolstered the toolset for entities to gain and exercise soft power. Soft power is a less abrasive approach than hard power, which typically includes tactics like persuasion or other cooperative means (Nye 16). The ability to reach more individuals globally than ever before is somewhat of a digital double-edged sword; on the contrary, it provides a level of access that allows adversaries to interfere with civilian life on a depth and scale never before possible. An example would be the dispatch of weaponized narratives, the strategic use of deploying information or disinformation to a targeted group of people to aid in pursuing a political objective. These activities are "intended to subvert and undermine an adversary's institutions, identity, civilization and will by creating and exacerbating complexity, confusion, and political and social schisms." (Allenby 2)
On conflict, it is important to note that some elements remain the same even in light of the dramatic shifts explored thus far. Dr. Kubiak made a profound observation saying, "The grammar of war can change, but the logic is still politics." This quote brings us back to Clausewitz, whose theories of war have proven to stand the test of time even when the world has become unimaginable to someone from Clausewitz's time in the eighteenth century. Clausewitz proposed the paradoxical trinity as a necessary balance of enmity, chance, and reason (89). Arguing that the relationship between these three tendencies is deeply rooted, and any attempts to compose a theory on conflict focusing on any two aspects of the trinity would be destined to fail and not survive reality. Therefore, balancing these forces is still considered essential even in modern conflicts. In the eighteenth century, humans engaging in conflict were not that different from humans today; the most significant differences have resulted from the onslaught of new complexities and connectedness brought on by generations of advancing technologies.
Strategy and approaches to address different scenarios have also been deeply impacted. Traditional strategies are still essential to refer back to; however, strategies that may have been effective in the past often fall short when applied to modern conflicts (Allenby). The digital strategic space is fluid, dynamic, and challenging to establish oneself as a dominant presence; the most technologically advanced agent is not guaranteed to achieve their strategic policy aims in any given scenario. Additionally, Boot warns about the risk of relying solely on technology within a strategy. Centering technology as the main principle is insufficient and rarely provides an "insurmountable edge." (Kubiak). To further Boot's rhetoric, he believed technology does not provide an indefinite advantage. Instead, the compounding speed of technology creates unstable ground, thus proving the relevance and sustainability of thoughtful strategies.
Strategy can be summarized as "the art of creating power" (Freedman 20). Though strategies have been forced to adapt over time, pursuing specific actions to create power without a clear strategy is doomed to fail. The benefits of technology have proven to provide no further advantages than providing additional tools to be leveraged. Thus, the impact of the technological and information revolution in current terms has not diminished the importance of strategy, only altering the landscape on which strategy would be executed upon. An important observation is that even if the importance of strategy has maintained its relevance, the ease at which these strategies can be pursued has been met with increased resistance and difficulty. "The more dense and complex the social structure, the more difficult the assertion of power." (Kubiak). Applying a strategy to either create or assert power is more difficult to pursue in modern times due to the various levels of complexity exacerbated by technology.
Allenby makes an acute observation on the evolution of strategy and notes," increasing democratization of these emerging technologies leads to "asymmetric warfare" strategies." (7). The prevalence of asymmetric warfare strategies will only continue to rise, especially as the cyber domain continues to be an increasingly active battlefield ripe with conflict. Adapting to utilize irregular warfare strategies is not a new strategic concept; the Prussian field officer Helmuth von Moltke is an example of a stragician (strategic magician). During the battle of Konnigratz, Moltke recognized the acceptance of emerging technologies amongst his General Staff; he also saw the advantages of embracing irregular warfare strategies peppered with the latest technologies as tools. Moltke seemed to grasp well that embracing the latest revolution can distinguish between victory and defeat. By developing a strategy that leveraged, but did not depend upon, as Boot would have it, the latest technologies. Moltke led the Prussians to a victory over Austria, despite being outmatched.
Technology can only change so much at a time. We are still prone to the same bouts of the human condition and have not escaped our flaws, a factor why Clausewitz's paradoxical trinity is still relevant today. Nevertheless, technology has not made strategy and human reasoning obsolete. With 4.66 billion online today, only 65% of the population is online. There is even more room for complexity to increase and the impact of technology to reign more remarkable still.
Allenby, Braden. “Module 4: Civilizational Conflict”. Arizona State University Lecture, Online, 2022.
—-.The Rightful Place of Science: Future Conflict and Emerging Technologies. Consortium for Science, Policy, and Outcomes, 2016.
—-.“What’s New About Weaponized Narrative?” White Paper for the U.S. National Academy of Sciences. Arizona State University, Weaponized Narrative Initiative, https://weaponizednarrative.asu.edu/publications/weaponized-narrative-white-paper-0, accessed on February 27, 2022.
Boot, Max. War Made New: Weapons, Warriors, and the Making of the Modern World. 59928th ed., Avery, 2007.
Clausewitz, Carl von, et al. On War, Indexed Edition. Revised ed., Princeton University Press, 1989.
Freedman, Lawrence. “The Problem of Power”. Mahnken, Thomas, and Joseph Maiolo. Strategic Studies: A Reader. 2nd ed., Routledge, 2014.
Harrison, Neil. Complexity in World Politics: Concepts and Methods of a New Paradigm (SUNY Series in Global Politics). State University of New York Press, 2007.
Kubiak, Jeffrey. “GSC 501 - Week 2”. Arizona State University Lecture, Online, 2022.
—-. “GSC 501 - Week 3”. Arizona State University Lecture, Online, 2022.
—-. War Narratives and the American National Will in War. 1st ed. 2014, Palgrave Macmillan, 2015.
Jr, Nye Joseph. The Future of Power. 1st ed. New York: Public Affairs, 2011.
Seebeck, Lesley. “Why the Fifth Domain Is Different.” The Strategist, 4 Sept. 2019, www.aspistrategist.org.au/why-the-fifth-domain-is-different/#:%7E:text=In%202011%2C%20the%20US%20Defense,an%20operational%20domain%20in%202016.
Statista. “Worldwide Digital Population as of January 2021.” Statista, 10 Sept. 2021, www.statista.com/statistics/617136/digital-population-worldwide.
