The Symbiotic Relationship between Urban Sprawl and Climate Change
The urban quad concept provides a valuable framework for understanding the symbiotic relationship between urban sprawl and climate change.
The urban quad model frames a city as a system similar to a biological system (Waltman). This system, described by Waltman (in The Metabolism of Cities), has a flow with inputs, outputs, and a metabolism. This model suggests that a city system can transform inputs that invariably produce toxins and waste. If left unaddressed, they will build up within the environment and result in adverse effects. This framework can be applied to the system of urban sprawl when examining an increasingly toxic environment and observing its impact on security and the vitality of the city system.
Additionally, viewing a city as a system of systems allows us to search for patterns in the flows and interactions of an environment and correlate conflict and other unsavory activities due to a build-up of environmental wastes and toxins. Without the ability to metabolize said toxins, a system can inherently poison itself into extinction and infect surrounding urban units.
Literal examples of toxins created as a byproduct of a city system are aerosols and pollutants; produced when urbanization occurs in an area. Mainly if factories, power plants, and other industrial systems are present (Kilcullen 18). These produce carbon and other pollutants that can collect in water supplies and the air and negatively impact natural systems. For example, rainfall patterns can be impacted, and thicker cloud coverage could form (Kilcullen 18). Though these changes do not sound immediately threatening, they can be over time as natural systems are impacted and issues begin to rise, such as radiation reflectivity due to thick cloud coverage (fog) and pollution (smog). In addition, they are resulting in higher temperatures and contributing to global warming greenhouse effects.
As clouds linger above urban areas and downwind of city centers (Kilcullen 18), urbanization can also directly influence the amount of rainfall in the area. A statistical study conducted by the Chinese Institute of Urban Meteorology found "a statistical correlation between Beijing's rapid expansion since 1981 and summer rainfall reduction between 1981 and 2005". The temperature increases in urbanized and densely populated areas are hotter and drier, directly affecting an area's ability to experience rainfall (Kilcullen 18). It does not take much imagination to understand the potentially disastrous effects this could have, especially as more surface areas of the planet are becoming urbanized.
After discussing literal toxins and pollutants in an area, let us examine a subjective version of filth, the criminal population. In our system of systems, there is a great risk of urban sprawls developing in an unstructured way, giving rise to "urban clutter" (Kilcullen 26). Again, this is another example of an attribute that does not present itself as immediately threatening. However, in "real life," the community feels the risks and consequences deeply. The type of urban clutter we are discussing is found in low economic areas that have developed as the population density increased. These slum-like areas rise out of necessity as opposed to big-budget development projects with heavy amounts of funding and resources. The winding and cluttered neighborhoods resulting from these systems pose a challenge for essential services such as first responders and the ability for effective police patrol and presence. They inadvertently create a sort of cover and refuge for criminal activities and for gangs to collect power over an area. Kilcullen suggests that these blind spots will continue to grow into "ungoverned, under-governed, and under-serviced" areas by 2035. It creates an even more significant challenge to influence positive change in these areas.
On the topic of geography, a different type of "wasteland" is always just around the corner. As former urban areas are bowled over and changed, occupants may be forced out in the wake of an economic boom (tech hubs, financial investment into the area, etc.). In some cases, as Kilcullen discussed, the area may be remodeled and become a thriving center for industry and prosperity. However, there is always the risk of such industrial areas, including factories and warehouses, becoming abandoned (28). Leaving a different kind of waste to be reckoned with as the post-industrial city is left behind to decay. This type of no man's land can create a haven for criminals and other individuals who wish to live in the shadows.
Urbanization and the biological systems within it should be treated with the same importance as the concept of human survival. It is clear that there are many ways these systems can go wrong, and even more evident that, like in biology, mother nature waits for no man. The metabolism to process waste and move past decay is subject to human manipulation and care. From examining different types of toxicity that can emerge within these systems, it appears that naturally, they will not resolve themselves. It will take strategy, support, and planning to address the issue of waste build-up and to devise sustainable city systems.
Kilcullen, David. “Climate and Geographical Implications for Future Urban Operations”, NATO Allied Command Transformation Research paper, 2015.
Kilcullen, David. “Urban Quad” Lecture, Graduate Level Course, 598: Urbanization, Security, and Conflict, Arizona State University, Accessed 2022.
