Preparing for the Future: Challenges and Threats Facing Developing World Cities
The increasing population and littoralization around coastlines bring future challenges, vulnerabilities, and conflicts. In the future, we may face as many threats brought on by technology as we do from ourselves. More specifically, the repercussions from the megatrends of urbanization, littoralization, and connectedness (Kilcullen 21). These trends may manifest in ways such as overpopulated areas, overstretched online city systems, and political and biological hazards - which we will examine further in this essay.
The intensifying urbanization across the globe has been doubling in numbers since 1750 (Kilcullen 21). However, the fate of an area is not due to the population size but the area's ability to handle the number of inhabitants in that geographic area. As Kilcullen described it, the growing onslaught of population size is concentrated in some of the least developed areas in the world, such as Asia, Latin America, and Africa; and are some of the least equipped areas to handle it (22). "This staggering pattern of urban explosion, the expansion of megacities and of secondary metropolitan areas, will largely materialize in developing countries" (Kruijt and Koonings 8). When an area cannot absorb an increase in population; as a result, there may be a rise in conflicts and gang violence as there is an absence of centralized government, health and education crises as there are not enough workers to meet the population's needs, and challenges with essentials such as clean and available water and food.
In the case of urbanization, the population increase in an underequipped area provides both challenges and threats, just like in the cases of the slums of Brazil, the favelas. As Perlman described it, "violence follows poverty," In the instances of overpopulation, poverty emerges as critical city systems are anemic (52). In addition, corruption is allowed to take root as there is a lack of formal policing and patrol. Solutions are simple but only sometimes possible, depending on the capabilities of the local government, for example, increasing safe housing, government support, police presence, providing healthcare and education, and consistent food and water supplies. All rely heavily on the government's ability to organize itself and its population support. As we move towards a globalized and hyperconnected world, there may be possibilities to seek funding and resources from wealthier nations as populations continue to grow and realize the benefits of a thriving neighboring population.
Littoralization shares similarities with urbanization, only being located explicitly along coastlines as Kilcullen described, "80 percent of humans ... live within 60 miles of a coast, while 75 percent of large cities are on a coastline" (23). Adding to the previously described issues that come with rapid urbanization, littoralization has the added challenges of living near the ocean. Aside from the natural challenges such as storms and rising tides, water introduces additional means for connection and access. As seen in the revolutions during the Arab Spring, the geographical location of an urbanized area on the sea provided opportunities for the uprising (Kilcullen 24), specifically, as new coastal cities are becoming hubs for connection and networking. As a result, there are more opportunities for highly connected urban warfare and tools than inland urbanized areas.
An example is guerilla insurgents leveraging off-the-shelf technologies to plan and carry out attacks. Current technologies magnify guerilla warfare strategies and objectives quite nicely and are causing empowerment to these off-the-books forces. As Marighela described, surprise, mobility and speed, knowledge of the terrain, and access to and collection of information are essential to guerilla warfare tactics (15-16). During the well-known attack on Mumbai, terrorists used Google maps to study the terrain during the planning period and off-the-shelf cell phones and GPS systems (Kilcullen 53). On the night of the attack, the terrorists were able to find entry by hijacking fishing trawlers by way of the open sea (Kilcullen 54). In this case, a solution may lie in similar physical ways as described with urbanization by increasing police presence on the ground and near ports and other entry points. However, also online and by regulating what technologies are available to the public.
The smart city concept was introduced as the way of the future. In various capacities, it has also been viewed as a way to solve various problems within urban life. However, as we reach the levels of technology needed to create such cities, the realities of applying technology to urban environmental systems are proving to create a different reality. As Kitchin and Dodge described, the technologies designed to develop resilience and reduce risks in urban systems have done the opposite by introducing new risks and creating a vulnerable system dependent on networks and technology (48). As with any cybersecurity-based resiliency plan, the ability to quickly transition to functioning offline is a typical priority. The needs of the environment will fluctuate depending on the system type; in an urban environment, a priority would be high availability and functionality at all times. For example, a city that loses water for even a short time could quickly become chaotic, with inevitable casualties if not restored within a specific time.
Additionally, increased interconnectedness across the globe comes with a dark side. Struggling areas now have the means to pursue previously unreachable business opportunities. Unfortunately, many of these are illegitimate and take the form of drug dealing, piracy, terrorism, and the illegal exportation of charcoal (Kilcullen 25). As Kilcullen tactfully described, "networks themselves are neither licit nor illicit. Rather, people self-organize in networks and engage in a complex hybrid of illicit and licit behavior that rides the connectedness of coastal urban areas" (25).
Solutions to these issues are emerging as implementation becomes more commonplace. In addition to building redundancy into the technological systems that may support a city, defenses are becoming organically integrated into the city system architecture. As Kitchin and Dodge explained, "attempts to limit and defend against ... crimes have become built in the fabric of cities ... through architecturally enacted defenses" (Kitchin Dodge 48). Some examples include strategically placed lighting and barriers, surveillance technologies, high fencings and walls, thick doors with solid locks, alarm systems, and reinforcements on windows (Kitchin Dodge 48). All are typical examples of prevention, deterrence, and detection systems.
Additionally, the same concept must be applied to cyber systems, focusing on high availability, deterrence, prevention, and detection built in at the architectural level. For example, an identified problem within networked systems is that common vulnerabilities are introduced by legacy systems still existing on a network and poor maintenance and hygiene of existing systems (Kitchin Dodge 50).
In the cases of crime enabled by increased connectedness, the solution to deter such dealings may again come in the form of visible police presence and vigilance (and addresses police corruption). As well as providing legitimate means for residents to make a living and be able to live comfortably. Critiquing criminals driven to crime by a desire to survive and looking for a way to provide for and feed their families is unfair. Instead, the local government must embrace this desire for work and provide healthy and prosperous opportunities. This would also help address the crime issues if there were stable and legitimate means to make an income.
The megatrends explored in this essay are occurring today, and nations can prepare to respond or suffer the consequences of being unprepared. We are looking at a highly interconnected future with great potential for prosperity and advancements. However, we could also be looking at a future plagued with chaos, food scarcity, and slums run by gangs. The success of our new interconnected world will also depend on nations' abilities to cooperate and support one another as borderlines begin to blur and we become globally integrated.
Kilcullen, David J. Out of the Mountains: The Coming Age of the Urban Guerrilla. Reprint, Oxford UP, 2015.
Kilcullen, David J. "The City as a System: Future Conflict and Urban Resilience." The Fletcher Forum of World Affairs, vol. 36, no. 2, Dec. 2011.
Kitchin, Rob, and Martin Dodge. "The (in)Security of Smart Cities: Vulnerabilities, Risks, Mitigation, and Prevention." Journal of Urban Technology, vol. 26, no. 2, Informa UK Limited, Dec. 2017, pp. 47–65. https://doi.org 10.1080/10630732.2017.1408002.
Kruijt, Dirk, and Kees Koonings. “The Rise of Megacities and the Urbanization of Informality, Exclusion and Violence.” Megacities, Zed Books Ltd, 2009, https:// doi.org/10.5040/9781350221345.ch-001.
Marighella, Carlos. Minimanual of the Urban Guerrilla. praetorian-press.com, 2011.
Perlman, Janice. "Megacity's Violence and Its Consequences in Rio De Janeiro." Megacities, Zed Books Ltd, 2009, https://doi.org/ 10.5040/9781350221345.ch-003.
