Ukraine's Fight Against Russia's Cyber Aggression Takes its Toll
The recent and enduring attacks from Russia on Ukraine, both covertly and overtly, have caused political, economic, and psychological strain on Ukraine and its people populace. Sustained campaigns appear to possess a variety of objectives, including but not limited to "espionage, sabotage, and … destructive effects" against multiple targets to the likes of "government, military, and critical infrastructure networks" (Case Study 1).
Russia seems to see Ukraine as their backyard that they are free to use as they please and test the latest developments in artillery, cyber, and other strategic exercises. Clearly, this is not fair to Ukraine and its people; however, this attitude may be because Russia is not supportive of Ukraine's independence (Masters 1). They know that Russia desires a return to a time when Ukraine was not independent, and the subsequent disregard of Ukraine's wishes could be part of a long-term strategy to pressure Ukraine to bargain with Russia. The deal being that Russia will cease attacks and ongoing simulations if Ukraine can meet their demands (which would most likely include something to do with Ukraine's large cargo ship port, the pipeline, and NATO).
To develop a strategy for Ukraine, it is also an important exercise to understand why Russia is behaving the way it is and how the relationship became strained. The most recent invasion in February 2022 is speculated to have been brought on, as Masters describes it, due to the unique partnership developing between NATO and Ukraine. Though Ukraine never joined or became a part of NATO, a special partner relationship was developing that Putin and company did not like. Demands followed, warning the United States, Ukraine, and NATO to cease expansion and the relationship. However, Kyiv did affirm that it intended to join NATO eventually (Masters). It appears that collectivity Ukraine does not desire to or intend to forfeit their three decades of independence to rejoin Russia as either a part of the former Soviet Union or as allies. Therefore, a defensive strategy must be developed and executed if Ukraine seeks a peaceful future. Furthermore, even though there has been much discussion and debate around Ukraine joining NATO as an ally, this type of power behind them would be highly beneficial in further establishing their independence from Russia.
Critical strategic elements to reaching this place of peace will be Ukraine's ability to deter, defend, and recover from Russian attacks and exercises. These should be the main pillars on which to develop strategies around.
In one of the more recent cyber attacks on Ukraine, Russia deployed a piece of malicious software (malware) against modems on the Viasat network. The satellite telecommunications company Ukraine relies on for communications and connectivity (Kan 1). This scenario provides an ideal example to discuss the strategy that would be most beneficial to Ukraine. Starting with a defensive strategy, Ukraine would benefit from what Arquilla coined as "preventative war" (100), seeking opportunities where Ukraine can gain an advantage over Russia due to strategic timing and maneuvers. Essentially looking for an exposed Achilles heel when Russia least expects it; proving to gain the upper hand will also lend them defensive advantages.
Additionally, as Schmidle, Sulmeyer, and Buchanan discussed, cyber capabilities provide advantages to the disadvantaged if leveraged strategically (32). For example, historically, Ukraine has been at a disadvantage compared to Russia in terms of military size and economics; however, cyber provides attainable tools that could aid in strategic deterrence and defense. Additionally, by adopting the defend forward mantra, cyber capabilities can provide a low barrier to entry that would aid Ukraine in building a robust defense. At the same time, the recovery element of the strategy is vital, and determining the maximum tolerable downtime for critical systems, if any, would be a place to start. From there, the most critical systems can be prioritized, and resources can be pooled to protect and defend those systems.
If anything, Ukraine has proven it can fight the long fight and do the best it can with what they have. A long-term strategy to further fortify Ukrainian independence and rebuild as quickly as possible could be the difference between survival and the end of a country. Many speculated that Putin wanted to rebuild the Soviet Union and was frustrated that Ukraine did not want to rejoin; however, as Toal stated, "The end goal was not to re-create the Soviet Union but to make Russia great again." This self-aggrandizing strategy has proven challenging to negotiate with and find peace. However, by utilizing the tools of modern times, the agility of a smaller nation with resources, and continuing to invest in cyber capabilities, Ukraine has an advantage in going up against a draconian empire.
Arquilla, John. 2017. “An Ounce of (Virtual Prevention)?” In George Perkovich and Ariel Levite, Understanding Cyber Conflict: 14 Analogies. Washington DC: Georgetown University Press.
Kan, Michael. “Viasat Hack Tied to Data-Wiping Malware Designed to Shut Down Modems.” PCMAG, 31 Mar. 2022, www.pcmag.com/news/viasat-hack-tied-to-data-wiping- malware-designed-to-shut-down-modems.
Schmidle, Robert, Sulmeyer, Michael, and Buchanan, Ben. 2017. “Nonlethal Weapons and Cyber Capabilities.” In George Perkovich and Ariel Levite, Understanding Cyber Conflict: 14 Analogies. Washington DC: Georgetown University Press
Toal, Gerard. Near Abroad: Putin, the West, and the Contest Over Ukraine and the Caucasus. Illustrated, Oxford UP, 2019.
