How Technology Democratization is Changing the Face of Guerrilla Warfare
Technology has forever changed our world in new and exciting ways, but with that has new opportunities that can be utilized for good or for not-so-good activities. Unfortunately, the same technological advances that are saving lives every day provide criminals far and wide with new tools and platforms to be leveraged. In some cases, technology has encouraged criminal activity with the development of anonymity. No longer would an individual need to plan a bank heist to steal money; they could steal money and stay in a room thousands of miles away and never be seen or heard. This phenomenon has also trickled down to developing nations, arming the modern urban guerrilla with a new tool kit to exploit. As a result, insurgents have become more lethal than ever due to these technologies.
The mass abundance of technology has saturated the globe with the effect that now days even the most rudimentary technologies can aid in high-stakes, highly strategic operations. As a result, threat actors no longer need special access or excess funding to obtain technologies that would aid them in their cases and plans. As was the case in the Mumbai attack, the raiders successfully used "mediocre" technologies that are widely available (Kilcullen 64). Kilcullen observed that they "employed commercially available phones and off-the-shelf GPS devices, and pulled much of their reconnaissance data from open-source, online tools such as Google Earth" (64). These technologies were once only available to well-funded and highly established entities, like militaries and governments. This phenomenon has been coined as the "democratization of technology,"; in which non state groups wield "highly lethal capabilities" (Kilcullen 65). For example, access to satellite imagery would have been highly restricted and required particular circumstances; nowadays, we can access it on our phones for free. It would be a nightmare for many to imagine guerrillas with all the same tools as the U.S. government, particularly in the hands of those with a brutal disregard for human life.
Not to give technology all the credit, the guerrillas in the Mumbai operation showed much skill in many areas and were advanced in reconnaissance and preparation (Kilcullen 64). It was also up to the guerrilla group to leverage technologies in the most beneficial ways. Reflecting on the "Mini-Manual of The Urban Guerrilla" by Merighela, fully trained guerrilla operatives are lethal on their own without the help of any special modern technologies. They are experts in hand-to-hand combat, marksmanship, intelligence collection, wilderness skills, survival, navigation (onshore and off), explosives, mechanics, and numerous other exciting skills. In addition to operations training to carry out ambushes, kidnappings, assaults, amongst just about any other villainous activity you can think of. It makes sense to the outside observer what role technology would have considering the guerrilla way of life and the emphasis on adaption and survival, with the mission at the center of every choice; technology is just the latest tool to be honed. Unfortunately for everyone but these guerrilla groups, technology has magnified their lethality and made them more effective in furthering their missions. As a further guerrilla warfare-specific example in an urban environment, drones can deliver explosive payloads to targets on command, allowing the insurgents to control the delivery and radius of the explosion in ways previously not possible. Targets must now watch the sky as much as their immediate ground-level surroundings.
Another evolution in guerrilla war fighting keenly supported by emerging technologies is the emergence of mobile units, as Marighela described, the "strategic task force and armed tactical group" that later developed (44). Smartphones, GPS devices, off-the-shelf electronics, internet access (generally speaking), and drones are technologies that equip mobile units in previously unseen ways, making them as lethal as ever. However, each of these technologies can aid and magnify the existing skills of the trained guerilla warfighter and provide additional ease and opportunities to pursue their objectives. As an additional example, a terrorist does not become a terrorist because of the latest technologies. On the contrary, they were likely terrorists before they used modern tools to aid them in achieving their objectives. However, in many cases, these technologies add to their lethality by making them sharper tools than previously available, for example, a paper map compared to Google Earth satellite images displaying infrastructure, urban idiosyncrasies, and relatively recent intelligence on the area.
We can learn from history the power of dedication to a cause, both positive and negative depending on whose perspective the situation is being considered from. Add modern tools, such as internet-based networks and anonymous telecommunication devices, and firepower delivered in new ways, such as through drones. Finally, we are looking at the new guerilla. The guerrilla that is a product of the democratization of technology and could rival nation-states in organization, technology, and equipment. As littoralization continues, we are heading into a future of conflict mainly fought on urban warfare terrain, with guerrillas and nation-states independently pursuing their ideals and causes. As populations expand and dividing lines blur, the two-sided conflict model of the past could likely meld into a hybrid of conflicts across different people groups, guerrillas, governments, and gangs.
As we have discussed, it is not technology that makes the guerrilla lethal and dangerous; they are already a threat in their own right through extensive training and dedication, if not through their sheer will to pursue a cause and make immense sacrifices.
Kilcullen, David. Out of the Mountains: The Coming Age of the Urban Guerrilla. Reprint, Oxford UP, 2015.
Marighella, Carlos. Minimanual of the Urban Guerrilla. praetorian-press.com, 2011.
